Esclusiva

Marzo 30 2024
Modi’s India, the economic and demographic growth

With a view to the upcoming elections, the indian subcontinent has abandoned respect for ethnic minorities and freedom of worship

A eighty years old man with glasses, white hair, uncultivated bear, with kurta in golden silk, a large and long shirt used in countries such as India, Pakistan and Sri lanka. He lays down to pray with clasped hands. Then he stands up. He walks solemny. He approaches a decorated statue. Thousand of touched devouts sorround him. They tried to shake his hands. Songs, dances and flags. Gaudy aboundant flowers, of every species and colours, encircle columns of white marble. An helicopter throws pink petals. Sacred rituals are not an exception in Narendra Modi’s India, but events that want to influence people. The temple, inaugurated in Ayodhya, a holy city in Uttar Pradesh, in the northern of the country, represents a nation that seems to have abandoned secularism. Built on the ruins of a mosque destroyed in 1992 by Hindu fanatics, the building is dedicated to the god “Rama”, “pleasure”, “joy” in Sanskritic. The nationalistic fringe in the government considers minorities with a xenofobic eye, includes only ethnicities with cultural references in the indian subcontinent. “The right rides a radical vision of a religious country”, affirms Stefano Beggiora, professor of philosophies, religions and history of India and Central Asia in the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice. Modi’s country hosts the third largest muslim community on the world, often treatied with disdain.

From the Independence in 1947 from Great Britain, followed by atrocities and war, it has faced discrimination, prejudices, violence, even if the constitution defends the freedom of worship. “Sikhs are considered Hindu because they are part of their history, muslims are there since lots of centuries, but they are seen as foreign, at the same way as christians”. United States expressed worries about the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, that would make easier obtaining citizenship for non-muslim refugees from three large majority islamic countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The treatment reserved to minorities pushed some international organisations to believe that India is not anymore a liberal democracy. According to a report of the Varieties of Democracy Institute, based in Sweden, the nation fell at the 104th place of 179 countries analyzed.

Televisions of all the world defined India “the most populated democracy”, but for many this definition is partly incorrect. According to official estimates of the United Nations, the indian population surpassed the chinese one with 1,4 billion of people, even if it’s hard to estimate the demographic data of the poorest, indigenous population that are 10% of the population and live in jungles and forests. Around 2000 India is one of the most populated countries, but with a smaller territory that China. The country has inherited from England the “Cendus of India” based in the domestic affairs ministry and engaged to do the census every 10 years, counting people from one district from another. The last one with accurate data was in 2011, because the 2020’s one is faulty by the Covid 19’s pandemic. “Every estimate must be taken with a pinch of salt” because there is a problem of civil registry, even if India has informatic devices and cutting-edge softwares”, continues Beggiora.

While before the growth boom was a problem, now it is a strenght. Modi counts on new generations like the “arms of the nation”. In the Seventies we speak a lot of demographic crisis because a stunning growth pushes Indira Gandhi to introduce a system of growth’s control. For Beggiora “Compared to the worries of the overpopulation, Modi encourages numerous families as resource of the nation also in a macroeconomic perspective”. For Hindus, the birth is sacred, a blessing for families. We wish that the marriage brings children and in the past people perceived not having them like a catastrophe. For a traditional perspective every fertility problem is related to the mother. “It’s not a sessist conception because the son is espression of woman’s breath, even when he was born he is part of mother’s  womb. The father is seen as distant”, tells the professor. For the productive structure, a young country is a resource, in relation to the chinese opponent: the median indian age is 27 years old, the chinese one is 37. The opening of the domestic market, from the Hindu right, to foreign investments, conducted to an economic blossoming after the harsh crisis of the beginning of Nineties.

The electoral propaganda of Bharatija Janata Party, Modi’s party, ahead of the upcoming elections between april and may, is based on the idea of promoting a shining, brilliant India. The perspective of a dynamic economy was proposed, an economy that aims at climbing the global ranking, pursuing China and United States. For Beggiora “Modi claims the development as merit of his government”. Rating agency Moody’s increased growth estimate for 2024 from +6.1% to +6,8%, foreseeing for India the most brilliant performance among the G20’s countries. In an annual frame of slowing down, according to the global bank, South eastern Asia, South Asia, in particular China and India, will stimulate economy. To support demographic growth, nation needs an economic structure capable to absorb work demand and create more than one million job roles in a month. The indian Gdp’s is one of the highest in Asia, but well-being and richness don’t arrive to the weakest segments of the society, they are concentrated in the hands of few. Recalling the attention on the environmental engagement, for Beggiora “the growth, that must be supported with investments, impacts with deforestation of natural areas, such as forests, and the exploiting of animals, resources that should be protected and valorised. The debate on sustainable development is an issue that Modi and the National Congress should consider”.