The upcoming European Parliament, which citizens of the 27 member states will be called to elect from June 6th to 9th, is shaping up to be the most right-wing in the history of the Union. According to projections by Europe Elects, if voting were held today, the three moderate and progressive forces that elected Ursula von der Leyen as President of the Commission in 2019 would lose seats. While the European People’s Party, first in 13 countries, maintains its position, there is a more marked decline for the Socialists and Renew Europe. On the rise, however, are the right-wing parties, from Giorgia Meloni’s Conservatives and Reformists to the Identity and Democracy group, which includes Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, Salvini’s Lega, and Alternative für Deutschland. “Even in July 2019, the Ursula majority was not very strong, some conservatives did not vote for her,” recalls Gavino Moretti, Rai correspondent from Brussels. The former minister in Merkel’s government “prevailed thanks to the decisive votes of the 5 Star Movement and part of the conservatives,” so much so that Janusz Wojciechowski, a member of the Polish Law and Justice party, heads the agriculture committee.
Even if von der Leyen’s name is not the one they converge on, “we can imagine that the first three parties,” as happened in the past, “will share the three key roles,” the presidencies of the Commission, the European Council, and the Parliament. One hypothesis is that for the latter, “Roberta Metsola could be reconfirmed,” and then passed on “maybe to a socialist or a liberal.” It is also not excluded to open up to the Greens who are plummeting in the polls, “they might have less strong demands. We were accustomed to the pacifism of the 1980s, when they protested against American missiles in Europe, while now they are taking a clear line in favor of Ukraine.”
There are few doubts, however, that the EPP would split in the face of an agreement with the far right, “because it would mean siding with AfD. When a center force allies with those with strong ideas, voters choose the original.” Even in 2019, “a victory for the sovereigntists was expected. Towards the Identity and Democracy group, it was decided to apply what was called a sanitary cordon,” choosing to “not give any committee presidency.”
It’s different “if an evolution of some parties is observed,” for example, if “Le Pen joins the conservatives choosing a more moderate line. However, she should more decisively support Ukraine and stop saying that France should leave the Euro.” Proposing “a majority composed of liberals, conservatives, and populists” is Antonio Tajani, secretary of Forza Italia and vice president of the EPP, “the same majority that elected him president of the European Parliament.”
As for the Socialists, it will be a matter of “appealing to those who did not vote to regain strength,” the challenge is to “explain why it is important to return to the polls. With two wars looming, a weak economic situation and inflation still high, it is easier for those who rely on anger and fear.” Turnout, therefore, “will be a decisive factor. In European elections the vote is more about opinion than belonging, the game is open.”
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