«There is a joke about the Middle East: people here make the right choice only after they have tried all the wrong ones», says Meir Litvak, Israeli historian and professor in the Department of Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University. Since the State of Israel was founded, 75 years have passed, but the country still faces the consequences of so many wrong choices, which now force it to deal with «the biggest internal crisis it has ever had to face». A divided nation, a declining economy and a contested ruling class, to which are added the weight of the unresolved Palestinian issue and the sense of uncertainty linked to the new power relations within the Middle East.
Israel’s history, however, is also made up of right choices, first and foremost that of giving a people persecuted for millennia the possibility of self-determination. On 29th of November 1947, thanks to UN Resolution 181, the Jews saw their right to a state recognised for the first time. Palestine is divided in two: one part is handed over to the Arab-Palestinian population already in the territory, while the other is the Promised Land in which the State of Israel will be born on 14 May 1948. «After the foundation, Jewish immigration increased enormously. In 1949 alone, it went from 600,000 people to more than 1 million in less than a year. This had never happened before in history», Professor Litvak recalls.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict
As Israel announces its independence, the enthusiasm and joy that pervade the Jewish people are mixed with the deep resentment of the Arab-Palestinian component, which does not accept the division of Palestine. The day after the foundation of Israel, troops from some Arab countries (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq) intervene in support of the Palestinians, giving rise to what is remembered as the first Arab-Israeli war.
From that moment to the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, passing through the Suez Crisis of ’56, the Six Day War of ’67 and the Yom Kippur War of ’73, up to the Intifadas of the 1990s and 2000s, the region experienced a spiral of violence, attacks, and reprisals that has never completely ended. After the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, the continuous clashes – the latest just a few days ago – have amplified tensions even more. «The Oslo Accords with the PLO – the Palestine Liberation Organisation – of 1993 tragically failed. For two main reasons: the radical extremists on the Palestinian side, who still campaign against Israel, and the Jewish extremists, who did their best to make the Accords fail», Professor Litvak explains.
«Unfortunately, it is very difficult to reach a serious long-term solution to the problem of Gaza and the West Bank (what international diplomacy calls the occupied Palestinian territories, ed.). The current Israeli government rejects the two-state solution, as do many Palestinians», Litvak continues. «The current situation could lead either towards a single state, majority and Arab-dominated, which would be the end of Israel as we know it and, in my opinion, a disaster. Or there could be a big clash in the future, I don’t know when, at the end of which hopefully both sides will realise that the only solution they have is the two-state solution. It would be painful, there would be enormous opposition on both sides, but I hope that in the end the two-state solution will prevail».
Israel and the new power relations in the Middle East
In the Middle East region, states such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Syria, recently rehabilitated at the table of the Arab countries, have been gaining more centrality in the face of Israel’s increasing isolation. «It is clear that Iran has become much more powerful and that the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation is an admission of failure on the part of the Saudis, who have failed everywhere they have tried to stop the Iranians», the professor explains. «Another process is then taking place that involves the US, much less interested in the Middle East than before. The Saudis have realised that they can’t count on the Americans for their security, so they have tried to get closer to the Chinese, but first they have to achieve reconciliation with the Iranians as well. This is a major strategic change, which has completely destroyed the hope or illusion of the Israelis that they could form some sort of alliance with the Arab countries against Iran: that is not what will happen».
From this situation of change and isolation of Israel, Russia and China are the powers that gain the most benefits. «Who would have imagined four years ago that Russia would buy arms from Iran?», asks a sarcastic Litvak. «Russia has repositioned itself because it is stuck in the war in Ukraine, but it is also a declining power. China, on the other hand, is an important player. For years it enjoyed the situation in which the Americans were there to keep the peace, and it limited itself to trade agreements. Now the big question is whether it will be willing to make efforts not only to buy oil from everyone, but also to maintain stability in the region. We don’t know yet, but without a doubt China is the main beneficiary of the unfolding situation in the Middle East».
Netanyahu’s role and the internal crisis 75 years after Israel’s birth
The biggest challenge of all for Israel, however, comes from inside the country, where for months hundreds of thousands of citizens have been protesting against the judicial and Supreme Court reform, announced and then postponed by Netanyahu’s government. «If the legal reform passes – I don’t think it will – it would make Israel a totally undemocratic country, at best something like Hungary or Turkey», argues Professor Litvak. «Netanyahu has promised that the reform will not be implemented before a broad consensus is reached. So it would seem that the reform is stuck, but I don’t believe a word he says. His government is conducting a disastrous policy».
In the past four months, Israeli society has risked collapsing and breaking in half between those who support the government’s policy and those who believe that the justice reform will condemn the country to an economic and democratic catastrophe. «We have had many crises in the past, we have had many political and social divisions. I don’t think, however, that there has been anything as serious as what is happening now», Professor Litvak concludes with concern. «I don’t think the division in society has ever been as deep as it is today. Netanyahu is a very divisive leader who thrives on division. He has brought us into a very serious situation domestically, economically and internationally. I hope we can overcome it, it will not be easy, but I think the current government has made the problems worse than ever before».
