As the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu persists, citizens are anxiously waiting to see what the next step will be for the country. İmamoğlu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), on the other hand, maintains its criticism against the government. The party gathers with the public in a different city every weekend, and in Istanbul on Wednesdays, to raise its voice.
Founded in 2009, the Social Impact Research Center (TEAM), which conducts consumer and voter profile research, shared the results of its latest report with the public. According to the report, the CHP has reached the highest vote rate in the surveys conducted so far. The same report indicates that Ekrem İmamoğlu is likely to take the lead in a possible presidential election.
In the 2023 presidential elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won with 49.52 percent. However, according to TEAM’s latest report, when the undecided voters are distributed, today İmamoğlu reaches 49.4 percent in the first round, while Erdoğan falls to 38.6 percent.
All these political uncertainties have started to reflect negatively on the Turkish economy. Especially since March 19, when Ekrem İmamoğlu was detained, increasing uneasiness in the markets has triggered a rapid rise in exchange rates. While 1 Euro was 40.26 TL on March 19, it has risen to 43.26 TL as of today. This increase is interpreted as an indicator not only of political developments but also of a breakdown in investor confidence.
The most recent report by the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings highlights the economic fallout triggered by recent political developments, stating: “İmamoğlu’s arrest on 19 March led to financial market volatility, including lira depreciation pressures, and higher government bond yields and CDS spreads. International reserves fell to USD 163.1 billion in the week ending 21 March, from USD 171.1 billion the week before.”
It also adds, since it is unclear how and when the current political uncertainty might be resolved: “Prolonged or increased uncertainty could weaken investor confidence, leading to periodic market volatility, sustained pressures on the lira and international reserves, deterioration of inflation and exchange rate expectations, and higher dollarisation.”
The CHP recently declared that it will hold a public demonstration in Ankara on April 23rd — National Sovereignty and Children’s Day, the day when the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye was founded — as part of its ongoing protests against Erdoğan.
